Statistics on Migration

A more descriptive post on migration and human rights is here.

Content

1. Numbers of migrants
1.1. Destinations
1.2. Origins
1.3. Religious affiliation
2. Main migration routes
3. Legal and illegal migration
4. Public opposition to migration
5. Migration and crime
6. Migration and education
7. Potential migration
8. Internal migration

1. Numbers of migrants

The Center for Global Development (CGD) estimates that around 200 million people – one in 33 or 3% of humanity – do not live in the country where they were born. That’s double the figure from 25 years ago. Why is that? Well, people can sometimes earn 15 to 20 times as much if they migrate, and migrating today is a lot easier than it used to be.

1.1. Destinations

Not surprisingly, the richest countries receive the largest number of migrants: while migrants come from a very diverse and widespread array of countries (see below), the vast majority end up immigrating to a relatively few areas – North America, Europe, Australia and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

Obviously, this raking is different when you relate the numbers of migrants to the size of the population of the destination country:

(source)

These are the shares for OECD countries only:

(source)

From the Telegraph newspaper, the map of the world modified according to the number of immigrants per country:

(source, click image to enlarge)

These are the numbers of immigrants in the U.S.:

In 1970, 5% of the U.S. population was foreign born; in 2007 13%.

(source)

(source)

Unsurprisingly, most immigrants in the US are Mexicans:

(source)

The graph below shows the impact of all immigration on the total population numbers of the U.S. since the creation of the country:

US population with and without immigration

(source)

If you compare the numbers of immigrants in the U.S. with other developed countries, you get this:

(source)

The graphs below show the changing shares of foreign-born residents in different countries (showing countries with lowest and highest increases between 1990 and 2010):

(source)

In the U.S., the proportion of residents born in another country increased from 4.8 to 12.4 % between 1970 and 2003.

Another way to measure the number of immigrants is to compare the number of foreign born workers to the total number of people in a country’s workforce:

(source)

1.2. Origins

Of the world’s 200 million migrants, most come fom Mexico, followed by Russia and the Ukraine where borders changed after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Here’s an overview of the origin of immigrants in OECD countries (“rich” countries):

Around 4m people moved to OECD countries in 2006, 5% more than the year before, according to the OECD’s annual migration report. Joining family members and seeking employment were the main reasons, accounting for 44% and 14% of all arrivals respectively. America is by far the most popular destination, taking 1.3m migrants. China provides the biggest share of legal immigrants to OECD countries (though Britain and Ireland do not monitor nationality). Chinese migrants made up the biggest group in South Korea, Japan and Canada, and the second largest in America after Mexicans. (source)

More details for the U.S.:

These are the numbers for 2010:

origins of migrant in the US year 2010

origins of migrants in the US

(source)

Some figures for the U.K.:

(source)

^ back to top

1.3. Religious affiliation

Half of the world’s 200 million migrants are Christian, coming from countries such as Mexico, Russia etc. A quarter are Muslim, coming mainly from the Palestinian territories, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India.

(source)

Jewish migrants represent a smaller share of the total number, but relative to their numbers Jews have by far the highest level of migration compared with other religious groups. About one-quarter of Jews alive today have left their birth country and now live somewhere else.

^ back to top

2. Main migration routes

The main migration routes today:

The largest growth in migration is for people migrating from the South to the North (the latter includes Australia and Japan):

(source)

The US is a particularly important recipient of migrants from all regions of the world. In 2000, the US was the most important destination for the migrants from sixty countries across the globe, including Germany, Vietnam, Cuba and Korea. Moreover, 13 of the largest 50 migration corridors in the world and 6 of the 10 largest South-North corridors in 2000 were to the US. The two most significant migration corridors to the US, from Mexico and the Philippines, totalled 10.8 million migrants, equivalent to 31% of the US migrant stock or nearly 7% of the world total. (source)

South-south migration is mainly to the oil-rich countries in the Middle East.

^ back to top

3. Legal and illegal migration

One has to distinguish between legal and illegal immigration. Here are some data for the U.S.:

(source)

Recently, illegal immigration has been decreasing slightly, probably because of the recession.

A combination of better law enforcement and an economic recession has resulted in a steep decline of illegal immigration from Mexico to the US. One way to measure illegal immigration is to extrapolate on the basis of the number of Border Patrol apprehensions. These went down fast, as is shown by this map:

(source)

Here are the total numbers:

(source)

I personally regret this since I’m in favor of open borders (see here). If it’s the recession that drives down illegal immigration, then that means an increase in poverty or at least an absence of a decrease. And if it’s border apprehensions that drive it down, then that means a violation of people’s freedom of movement, freedom of association etc.

To deport the 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States en masse, it would take more than 200,000 buses, stretching more than 1,800 miles (source).

Nearly two-thirds of the 10.2 million unauthorized adult immigrants in the United States have lived in the country for at least 10 years and nearly half are parents of minor children.

(source)

(source)

Many countries choose not to deport illegal immigrants, and instead offer them “legalization” or “regularization”, often in one-time campaigns. For instance, more than 5 million unauthorized migrants have been legalized in the European Union since 1996.

(source)

^ back to top

4. Public opposition to migration

The public in most developed countries (or rich countries) is often opposed to immigration:

(source)

(source)

US public opinion on immigration

(source)

(source)

^ back to top

5. Migration and crime

One of the causes of this negative perception of migration is the mistaken belief that there is a correlation between migration and crime rates:

(source)

(source)

(source)

^ back to top

6. Migration and education

(source)

Immigrant children typically do worse at school than their fellow pupils. There are many reasons for this difference in performance and in test scores:

• Immigrant families are often poor
• Immigrant children’s parents are often undereducated: many immigrants are attracted to low-paid, low-skilled jobs because that’s where the opportunities are; and even though many immigrants work below their level of education, the labor market may exert a downward pressure on the levels of education of the entrants, and hence also of their children
• Immigrant families often do not know the language as well as the locals (or their children start school without any knowledge of the language at all)
• etc.

However, even when we correct for these disadvantages, as the OECD does in its Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), not all of the gap is closed. See this graph:

(source)

Apart from some exceptions – notably Chinese immigrants – there is still a gap and immigrants are underperforming in schools.

The interesting thing about this graph, as pointed out by The Economist, is that it allows us to compare the results of one type of immigrant community in different host countries. Turkish immigrants, for example, do much better in Belgium or Switzerland than in Austria or Denmark. If children do differently depending on where they end up, then it’s possible to conclude that the schooling systems in the host countries play a part in the performance of the pupils. Or, if not the schooling system as such, then the way in which the system deals with immigrant children (does it treat them fairly, or does it automatically side-track them in low-level schools or disciplines?).

Of course, we should be careful not to put all the blame on schools, poverty, language etc. Immigrants are to a certain extent responsible for their own behavior and accomplishments.

Some more data, specifically for the US this time:

(source)

(source)

^ back to top

7. Potential migration

The Gallup Potential Net Migration Index estimates what would happen to countries’ populations if everyone in the world who wanted to migrate were able to, and if everyone who wanted to leave were also able to. So the index gives the net national (adult) population growth from unrestricted international migration, or, in other words, national population growth as it would occur when there wouldn’t be immigration restrictions and when all those who desire to migrate permanently to other countries would actually move where they wanted.

Mathematically, it’s the estimated number of adults who would like to move permanently out of a country if the opportunity arose, subtracted from the estimated number who would like to move into it, as a proportion of the total adult population. A country’s population size affects how high or low its index score is and its ranking, since the score is expressed in terms of the percentage increase or decrease of the pre-immigration population. So a country with a small current population but a relative high number of foreigners wishing to go there, will figure high in the ranking. The absolute numbers of foreigners wishing to go there can, however, be much lower than the number for another country lower in the ranking but with a larger pre-immigration population. That’s why Singapore ranks higher than the U.S., although more people want to migrate to the U.S. If all people were allowed to migrate to the U.S. their impact on the total population number for the U.S. would, however, be smaller.

The index offers an indicator of the relative economic attractiveness of countries, or their relative state of misery.

(source)

There are roughly 600 million would-be migrants in the world today, roughly 15% of the world’s adults. Most of them are young, single, educated, relatively financially well-off but lacking in employment opportunities.

(source, click to enlarge)

More than one in four adults worldwide (26% or 1 billion) say they would like to go to another country for temporary work.

^ back to top

8. Internal migration

Migrant isn’t necessarily international. Large countries especially can witness substantial numbers of citizens moving internally, usually to th emore prosperous regions. The typical example is of course China:

This map relates migration patterns to Human Development Index scores:

(source)

^ back to top