Statistics on Poverty in Africa

Content

1. Absolute numbers
2. Relative numbers
3. Alternative numbers
4. International vs national numbers
5. Alternative poverty systems for poverty measurement

1. Absolute numbers

According to the World Bank poverty estimates, Africa – meaning sub-Saharan Africa – hasn’t seen large reductions in the absolute numbers of poor people. Compared to China, for instance, the number of poor Africans – those living on less than $1.25 a day – has even grown during the last decades:

poverty china india africa

(source)

The numbers almost doubled from 200 million in 1981 to 400 million in 2005, although in 2008 they fell by a few million (source). Between 2005 and 2008, for the first time, the absolute number of poor Africans declined, from roughly 395 million to 386 million. That, however, is still almost half of all Africans. The estimate for 2010 is 414 million.

From 1993 to 2008 the average per capita income of sub-Saharan African economies barely budged—it increased from $742 to $762 per year (measured in 2005 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars). If we exclude South Africa and the Seychelles, we see a decline from $608 to $556 over the period (source).

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2. Relative numbers

And yet, a lot of the growth in the absolute numbers is due to population growth. If you look at the relative numbers, the percentage of poor Africans has actually been falling. Using the measure of people living on $1.25 a day or less, the World Bank estimates that the percentage of poor Africans fell from 58 percent in 1999 to 47.5 percent in 2008 and 44 percent in 2011.  This rate of decline of about one percentage point a year is a welcome change from the previous decades when the poverty rate increased:

poverty in Sub Saharan Africa

(source)

poverty in africa

(source)
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3. Alternative numbers

This paper tells the same story but with an alternative and even more optimistic set of numbers. In the graph below, the rate of the population surviving on less than $1 dollar day has fallen to 32% in 2006 from a high point of 45% in the late 1980s. How come? As you can also see in the graph, at the time poverty began to decline around 1995, GDP began to grow (after three decades of zero or negative growth). The graph shows a striking correlation between poverty reduction and economic growth (something I have written about before in another context, see here and here).

one dollar a day poverty and gdp growth in subsaharan african

(source)

Of course, poverty reduction isn’t the automatic result of GDP growth only. Other factors are at work as well.

What’s interesting is that this African growth spurt since 1995 (probably briefly interrupted by the current recession) isn’t just caused by growing oil prices. If that had been the case, we would have seen increasing income inequality, since revenues from the oil industry are typically appropriated by elites. But that’s not the case. Poverty reduction in Africa has gone hand in hand with a reduction in income inequality. You can see the extent of this reduction in the following two graphs:

income inequality in Africa

african income distribution 1970-2006

(source)

This means that growth has benefited the poor.

It’s a development that is remarkably general across African countries and that is not just explained by good news in a few large countries. Poverty is falling even in countries which are believed to burdened by geography, bad agricultural prospects, a history of slave trade, war, or lack of natural resources.

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4. International vs national numbers

Notice the often large discrepancies between the World Bank poverty estimates and the different national estimates using a national poverty line:

poverty in Africa World Bank and national poverty line

(source)

A lot of these differences are caused by somewhat strange national choices: Uganda assumes that a person needs 3000 kilo calories per day, which is 40 percent higher than the threshold used in Angola or Mozambique, and Tanzania uses a survey-based price index instead of its official Consumer Price Index.

According to national numbers, Rwanda moved one million people out of poverty. Ghana and Uganda also showed significant declines in poverty. Where growth was anemic or negative, as in Cote d’Ivoire, poverty rates increased.

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5. Alternative poverty systems for poverty measurement

Poverty can be measured in a number of different ways. National accounts data is one source. However, many African countries’ national statistics systems have difficulties generating reliable numbers on their national accounts. National statistical offices also conduct large household surveys to measure income, expenditure, assets etc. These can be used to calculate national poverty lines and count the numbers of individuals below that line. The problem here us that these surveys are expensive and conducted infrequently in many African countries.

You can also use more direct surveys to measure poverty. The Afrobarometer for example offers the Lived Poverty Index (LPI) based on a series of survey questions that measure how frequently people actually go without basic necessities during the course of a year. According to the latest Afrobarometer:

  • One in five Africans still experiences frequent (“many times” or “always”) deprivation with respect to their most basic needs for food (17%), clean water (21%), and medicines and medical care (20). Approximately half experience at least occasional shortages.
  • Majorities report facing shortages in medicine and medical services (53% at least once in the past year) and food (50%). Just under a majority experience at least occasional shortages of clean water (49%).

lived poverty afrobarometer

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10 Comments

  1. steph says

    the indivisibility of human rights: how exactly does it benefit developing countries? minus of course, the enforcement of proper education and poverty reduction. is cost generally a problem developing countries face when trying to fulfill human rights?

    • Human rights are indeed costly (see here) but so is dictatorship. Countries that claim that they are not able to respect human rights because that would cost too much and they are poor and don’t have the resources, are often dishonest: they have the resources for repression, and fail to see the economic benefits of freedom.

  2. charug211 says

    Every child, woman and man deserves to get the basic nutrition their body requires. It’s us who can make sure they are not deprived.

    Globally more than 173 Million people stood up against poverty in 2009, a Guinness World Record!

    Let us break this record in 2010!

    It is Time for You to STAND UP AGAINST POVERTY NOW!
    Join us on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/unmcampaignINDIA
    Follow us on Twitter at http://twitter.com/unmcampaignIND

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  7. I dont agree with the fact that dictatorship is a problem here, infact even Germany had a dictator for years but it was able to implement its resources according to its needs. the fact is Africa is the richest continent in the world if it can feed almost if not all continents with its minerals and human if at needs be. The issue here is when you take something from someone you ought to repay him with something otherwise that person will end up with nothing especially if you keep coming back and taking and taking.

  8. MAJEED MUTAWAKEEL says

    Thy could be done on Africa as it is in heaven if we care for one another as common global citizens

  9. concerned american says

    i doubt we will help them much. i mean africa COULD BE one of the richest contentets in the world! they are rich in gold,diamonds, and oil but they use the money to support their civil wars. so why help when they wont help themselves?

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