comedy, statistical jokes

Statistical Jokes (44): Correlation Doesn’t Imply Causation, Ctd.

(source) This is a real study apparently, not a joke at all – at least not intended as one. And the “researcher” even goes out of his way to argue that correlation in this case does imply causation: There was a close, significant linear correlation (r=0.791, P<0.0001) between chocolate consumption per capita and the number […]

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education, lies and statistics, poverty, statistics, war

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics (17): The Correlation-Causation Problem and Omitted Variable Bias, aka “Jumping to Conclusions”

(source) Some more detailed information after my casual remark on the correlation-causation problem. Here’s a fictitious example of what is meant by “Omitted Variable Bias“, a type of statistical bias that illustrates this problem. Suppose we see from Department of Defense data that male U.S. soldiers are more likely to be killed in action than […]

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democracy, education, lies and statistics, statistics

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics (24): Mistakes in the Direction of Causation

Time for a more lighthearted post in this blog series. Suppose you find a correlation between two phenomena. And you’re tempted to conclude that there’s a causal relation as well. The problem is that this causal relation – if it exists at all – can go either way. It’s a common mistake – or a […]

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comedy, lies and statistics, statistics

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics (1): Correlation

You know I love graphs and statistics, so here’s one showing how importing lemons from Mexico reduces highway fatality rates in the U.S.: (source) And here‘s another one. Just so that you don’t automatically believe everything I write (as if you would), and a funny reminder that correlation doesn’t necessarily imply causation. For some real […]

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